Thursday, October 3, 2013

We are in the Weakest Part of Presidential Cycle

Market risk: Weakest part of Presidential Cycle starts in mid 2013 (Jul/Aug peak)
Weakest part of Presidential Cycle
 From Merrill:
2013 is the first year of a new Presidential Cycle. The first quarter of the first year of the cycle is down 1.33% on average (1Q in 2013 bucked this trend), but the weakest period of the Presidential Cycle is from a July/August Year 1 peak to a September Year 2 (mid-term election year) low. The average decline over this period is 4.31%. With the rally in September, 2013 is bucking this weaker Presidential Cycle period so far.
Source: Merrill Lynch, TBP

President Obama, the complete CNBC interview (video)

CNBC's John Harwood sits down with President Obama to discuss the government shutdown, why Wall Street should be worried, and his feeling about the next Fed Chairman.


Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Twitter IPO filing: Big focus will be revenue growth

Twitter is reportedly set to soon unveil the filing for its initial public offering, a document that will give investors their first in-depth look at the social network’s financial health.
Much of the attention will likely be on revenue growth, which some analysts speculate has been strong.
“I’m pretty confident that revenues more than doubled from 2012 to 2013, so investors will like that,” Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter told MarketWatch. “More important is the rate of growth the last couple of quarters, and I suspect it is really high.”
Twitter’s annual revenue has skyrocketed since 2011 as its user base has expanded, according to estimates from eMarketer.
The San Francisco-based company’s revenue soared more than 200% to $288 million last year, is projected to more than double to $583 million this year, reach nearly $1 billion next year and to top $1.3 billion in 2015, according to the market research company.
Twitter is also seen posting steady growth outside the U.S. The company’s non-U.S. ad revenue is expected to make up nearly a quarter of total sales by 2015, according to eMarketer. The company’s mobile ad revenue is also projected to exceed $300 million this year, and top $500 million this year.
The market research company based its estimates on data from “other research firms, investment banks, analysts and other sources,” as well as interviews with executives at ad agencies, brands, online ad publishers and other industry leaders, eMarketer Vice President Clark Fredricksen told MarketWatch.

source:  thetell

Gold Selloff Catches Some Off Guard

Gold could be losing its label as a safe-haven asset.

Considered a good bet during times of political and economic uncertainty, gold caught some analysts and traders off guard when prices in the spot market slumped over 3% on Tuesday, posting only a small rebound in European trading on Wednesday
“I find that surprising given the timing as we move into an extremely uncertain period over the next two or three weeks,” said Robert Rennie, chief currency strategist at Westpac Bank in Sydney. “There are certainly rumors of fund liquidation in the market.”
Some traders had anticipated gold to benefit from higher demand for traditional safe-haven assets. Market reaction to the U.S. government shutdown on Tuesday was muted, with stocks there rising slightly. Investors pointed to more uncertainty around the chances of a prolonged shutdown hurting the wider economy, or if it threatens a solution on the U.S. debt limit.
Others say the sell off is in line with history, finding a correlation between the length of the shutdown and how much the gold price goes up.
Spot gold prices had touched a record $1,920.94 a troy ounce in September 2011 after Standard & Poor’s had cut the U.S. credit rating following months of debate over raising the country’s debt ceiling.
As of 0815 GMT, spot gold was trading at $1,292 a troy ounce, up $4.50, or 0.3%, from its previous close.
Some analysts said that the current selling in gold has more to do with technical indicators than fundamental issues. Traders usually have predetermined levels programmed in their computers that triggers sell orders when the price reaches a particular level.
The fall in gold prices below the $1,300 a troy ounce mark is “never really good for confidence,” said Stan Shamu, a strategist with IG in Melbourne.
Besides, Mr. Shamu says physical demand, which had helped to prop up prices at times, is missing with the world’s two biggest buyers—India and China—on holiday.
Analysts expect prices could fall, before starting to rise as the Oct.17 deadline to raise U.S. debt ceiling approaches.
source:  wsj


List of Economic Releases During A Government Shutdown

The U.S. government shutdown will halt releases of most official gauges of the economy. Private organizations produce some measures that could be used to track the economy, such as gauges from the Institute for Supply Management. Government organizations that operate outside of the federal appropriations process, such as state unemployment agencies and the Federal Reserve, also will release their data.
Here’s what we will learn and won’t learn, through reports from the public and private sectors, over the next month:
10 AM—Construction spending (Commerce Dept.) — POSTPONED
10 AM – ISM manufacturing ( — RELEASED
10 AM—Light-vehicle sales (various companies) — RELEASED

8:15 AM –ADP Employment ( — STILL ON

7:30 AM—Job cuts ( — STILL ON
8:30 AM—Initial jobless claims (Labor Dept) — STILL ON
10 AM—ISM nonmanufacturing ( — STILL ON
10 AM—Factory orders (Commerce) — POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN

FRIDAY, Oct. 4
8:30 AM—Employment report (Labor) — POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN

MONDAY, Oct. 7
3 PM–Consumer credit (Federal Reserve) — STILL ON

7:30 AM—NFIB survey ( – STILL ON
8:30 AM—International trade (Commerce) — POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN
10 AM—Job openings and labor turnover (Labor) — POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN

10 AM—Wholesale trade (Commerce) — POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN

8:30 AM—Initial jobless claims (Labor) — STILL ON
8:30 AM—Import prices (Labor) — POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN
2 pm—Federal budget (Treasury Dept) — POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN

FRIDAY, Oct. 11
8:30 AM—Retail sales (Commerce) — POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN
8:30 AM—Producer-price index (Labor) — POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN
9:55 AM—Consumer sentiment (University of Michigan) — STILL ON
10 AM—Business inventories (Commerce) POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN

MONDAY, Oct. 14
Columbus Day

TUESDAY, Oct. 15
8:30 AM—Empire State Survey — STILL ON

8:30 AM—Consumer-price index (Labor) — POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN
10:00 AM—National Association of Home Builders survey — STILL ON
2:00 PM—Beige Book (Federal Reserve) – STILL ON

8:30 AM—Initial jobless claims (Labor) — STILL ON
8:30 AM—Housing starts (Commerce) — POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN
9:15 AM—Industrial production (Federal Reserve) — STILL ON
10:00 AM—Philadelphia Fed survey — STILL ON

FRIDAY, Oct. 18
10:00 AM-Leading indicators (Conference Board) — STILL ON

MONDAY, Oct. 21
10:00 AM—Existing-home sales (National Association of Realtors) — STILL ON

TUESDAY, Oct. 22
10:00 AM—Richmond Fed survey — STILL ON

9:30 AM-Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index — POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN

8:30 AM—Initial jobless claims (Labor) — STILL ON
10:00 AM—New-home sales (Commerce) — POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN
11:00 AM—Kansas City Fed survey — STILL ON

FRIDAY, Oct. 25
8:30 AM—Durable goods (Commerce) — POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN
9:55 AM-Consumer sentiment (University of Michigan) — STILL ON

MONDAY, Oct. 28
10:00 AM—Pending home sales (National Association of Realtors) — STILL ON
10:30 AM—Dallas Fed survey — STILL ON

TUESDAY, Oct. 29
9:00 AM–S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index — STILL ON
10:00 AM-Consumer Confidence (Conference Board) — STILL ON
10:00 AM-Housing vacancies (Commerce) — POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN

8:15 AM –ADP Employment ( — STILL ON
8:30 AM—Gross Domestic Product (3Q) (Commerce) — POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN
2:00 PM-Federal Open Market Committee statement (Federal Reserve) — STILL ON

8:30 AM—Initial jobless claims (Labor) — STILL ON
8:30 AM—Personal income (Commerce) — POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN
8:30 AM—Employment Cost Index—Labor Dept — POSTPONED IN SHUTDOWN

9:45 AM—Chicago PMI — STILL ON
source: wsj

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Here's Why ESPN Has A Huge Ad On SI's Website Today (video)

It's been a rough stretch for ESPN and SportsCenter. Ratings for ESPN's flagship show have been sagging, bringing in about 828,000 viewers this year, down from about 1 million last year.

Primetime ratings for ESPN and ESPN2 have seen declines too. ESPN's gotten really defensive about it, especially in the run-up to Fox Sports 1's launch.

So how do you fight the downward trends? With money! ESPN is introducing a new SportsCenter spot—you probably saw at some point this weekend—and what's unique is that it won't be on ESPN alone. 

The Wall Street Journal reports that this is the first time in nearly a decade that ESPN will advertise SportsCenter on other channels. (Maybe you saw the spot during NBC's Sunday Night Football.)

The Journal reports:

"Shoring up SportsCenter is key for ESPN. Such studio programming accounted for 43% of the $2.8 billion in ad spending ESPN attracted in 2012 to its flagship and sister networks, according to WPP PLC's Kantar Media, an ad-tracking research firm. Needham Insights estimates that ESPN has more than $10 billion in annual revenue.
The SportsCenter ads will run on DirecTV, Time Warner Inc.'s Adult Swim and channels owned by Viacom Inc. such as Spike and Comedy Central, ESPN said.

The network's ad outlays have been declining over the past few years. ESPN spent $57.2 million in 2012, down from $138.8 million in 2010, according to Kantar. ESPN declined to comment on ad-spending totals, but added that in 2010 it heavily promoted the World Cup."

source:  Deadspin

Jon Stewart skewers DC politicians over shutdown (video)

Politics aside, Jon Stewart is pretty funny when he gets a mean streak in him and lights people up.