Tuesday, November 24, 2015

S & P 500 Futures to test support this morning

S & P 500 Futures are down 14 after reacting to Nato member Turkey shooting down a Russian warplane near the Syrian border.

As we all know, traders hate the unknown.  And as we've seen many times before, these geopolitical events cause an increase in market volatility as the story plays out and new information is deciphered and analyzed.

However, the good news is that we've also seen technical levels provide clarity during these times of unknown fundamentals.

Like a pilot uses his instruments to fly through the fog, use the charts this morning to trade these events.

3 important levels are bunched up and sit right below us:

2062 has been a huge level since Spring.
2061.47 (grey line) is the 9 dma.
2059 (yellow line) is the 200 dma.

If the market continues to sell off at the open over geopolitical fears, 2062 is a great place to get long for a trade back to the important 2079 level.

Thursday, November 19, 2015

S & P 500 Futures...some perspective

The Federal Reserve's decision on a December rate hike, corporate earnings, high profile ipo's and geopolitical concerns have been grabbing the headlines and controlling the dialog, yet the market is still bouncing in between well defined support and resistance levels.

For example, even as the terrorists attacks in Paris were causing chaos and fear, the market behaved rationally and bounced right off its 50 day moving average (red line above).

It has since rallied into some resistance at the 2089 level and is currently settling into a battle here at the very important 2079 level.

Of all the factors that may affect the market, I expect year-end performance anxiety from institutional money managers to trump them all.

In other words, buyers are higher and sellers are lower, which should create a great environment for range traders.

Rather than getting overly bullish or bearish, I'm using the levels in the chart above as inflection points to trade against.

Thursday, July 9, 2015

S & P 500 Futures...some perspective

Wild week, but the levels are all still intact.

The March low @ 2032 has held nicely for now and has become the line in the sand.

There's resistance to bounces @ 2062, the 150 dma @ 2073 and 2079.

Greece, Puerto Rico, China, and the NYSE trading halt (hack).

I'm not sure what else they can throw at this market, but be prepared.

If there is another event that causes more selling, keep an eye on 2032.

Under 2032, the red trend line that I highlighted back in October 2014 is back in play and gets us to 2000 quickly:

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

S & P 500 Futures rally into resistance

2089 should present a test to this bounce in the form of resistance, especially with the 9 dma right above @ 2090.42.

Nimble longs who got in @ 2062  would be smart to lighten up here.  You can always reload lower and capture some alpha in the process.

Fast money traders could play for an afternoon roll here @ 2089 but the 50 dma above @ 2101 would be a better spot to put on some shorts.

S & P 500 Futures re-test 2062

Nice bounce so far off the 2062 level overnight.

The 150 dma @ 2071.04 is the pivot.

2079 resistance was the high yesterday and still matters.  2089 is the next target if we get through on volume and confidence (and not just a Greece rumor).

There are a lot of lines of resistance above for this market, so don't expect a straight shot higher.  There's just too much wood to chop.

2062 is support, but triple bottoms are a rare thing.  Heads up if we break as the 200 dma @ 2044.78 would be next.

Monday, June 15, 2015

S & P 500 Futures areas of support

The 2062 - 2065 (I know, 3 point range...its not well defined as you can see in the above chart) area seems to have enough noise to slow down a sell off and perhaps generate a bounce.

Shorts have to cover here.  And nimble longs can get involved.

The 150 dma @ 2070.74 matters above.  If we can get above that level with some volume and confidence, 2079 and 2089 beckon.

S & P 500 Futures approaching important 150 dma

Nothing like a loud wake-up call first thing on a Monday morning.

This chart goes back to December, 2013 and shows the importance of the 150 day moving average.

The 150 dma (currently @ 2070.79) has been a rock for 3 years, but just in case it isn't this time, I think its time to play a little defense.

The failure of this line last October led to a nasty, sharp sell off (and subsequent recovery).

Traders who kept some powder dry and and bought at the well defined trend lines picked up some major alpha at year end.

If we break this line, traders will have some work to do to navigate this tape.  Stay tuned.