Wild week, but the levels are all still intact.
The March low @ 2032 has held nicely for now and has become the line in the sand.
There's resistance to bounces @ 2062, the 150 dma @ 2073 and 2079.
Greece, Puerto Rico, China, and the NYSE trading halt (hack).
I'm not sure what else they can throw at this market, but be prepared.
If there is another event that causes more selling, keep an eye on 2032.
Under 2032, the red trend line that I highlighted back in October 2014 is back in play and gets us to 2000 quickly:
Tuesday, June 16, 2015
2089 should present a test to this bounce in the form of resistance, especially with the 9 dma right above @ 2090.42.
Nimble longs who got in @ 2062 would be smart to lighten up here. You can always reload lower and capture some alpha in the process.
Fast money traders could play for an afternoon roll here @ 2089 but the 50 dma above @ 2101 would be a better spot to put on some shorts.
Nice bounce so far off the 2062 level overnight.
The 150 dma @ 2071.04 is the pivot.
2079 resistance was the high yesterday and still matters. 2089 is the next target if we get through on volume and confidence (and not just a Greece rumor).
There are a lot of lines of resistance above for this market, so don't expect a straight shot higher. There's just too much wood to chop.
2062 is support, but triple bottoms are a rare thing. Heads up if we break as the 200 dma @ 2044.78 would be next.
Monday, June 15, 2015
The 2062 - 2065 (I know, 3 point range...its not well defined as you can see in the above chart) area seems to have enough noise to slow down a sell off and perhaps generate a bounce.
Shorts have to cover here. And nimble longs can get involved.
The 150 dma @ 2070.74 matters above. If we can get above that level with some volume and confidence, 2079 and 2089 beckon.
Nothing like a loud wake-up call first thing on a Monday morning.
This chart goes back to December, 2013 and shows the importance of the 150 day moving average.
The 150 dma (currently @ 2070.79) has been a rock for 3 years, but just in case it isn't this time, I think its time to play a little defense.
The failure of this line last October led to a nasty, sharp sell off (and subsequent recovery).
Traders who kept some powder dry and and bought at the well defined trend lines picked up some major alpha at year end.
If we break this line, traders will have some work to do to navigate this tape. Stay tuned.
Wednesday, June 10, 2015
With the downward sloping 9 dma crossing the 50 dma @ 2098.58 we should see some pullback here.
If you bought the bounce at the 150 dma and held through 2079 and 2089, this is where you have to take some money off the table.
Nimble traders can even short here for a re-test of 2089 and perhaps even 2079 if fear comes back into the market due to the bond action (TLT).
Tuesday, June 9, 2015
The 150 dma (light blue line) is currently 2068.98, which we tested and held essentially to the tick...the overnight low is 2068.75.
2079 should be a battleground as the bounce continues, but if we can get above that 2079 with a little confidence and volume, 2089 is next.
Besides the 150 dma @ 2068.98, 2062 is additional support if the sellers emerge at the open.