Friday, November 21, 2014
Discipline dictates taking some profits here as we've had this upper band pegged for awhile.
Nimble traders can short and cover at the 9 dma @ 2044.
I would use the Draghi headlines as a selling opportunity. You can always reload lower and create some alpha in the process.
Thursday, November 20, 2014
The Junk Bond index is yielding over 6%, which has been a deterrent to stocks since 2010.
Weakness in HYG has acted as a leading indicator in the past and the current divergence cannot be ignored.
Tuesday, November 18, 2014
The blue trend line in the chart above has been very consistent since the 2009 lows.
The upper band that I wrote about earlier looks to be about another 25 points higher...call it 2075.
As hard as it may be to stay long / buy dips / not get married to shorts, I think thats the call until the charts say otherwise.
Friday, November 14, 2014
The HAL / BHI deal probably put a temporary low in the OIH.
$FSLR and other energy derivatives have sold off hard with the recent decline in oil and the energy space.
$45.80 - $46.25 looks like a decent level to get long for a trade. At least cover shorts there.
RSI shows an oversold condition as well.
Target is the 9 dma (currently $51.77 but declining).
Thursday, November 13, 2014
Below the 9 dma @ 2024.75 there's nothing but air until the 50 dma @ 1967.34 and the 100 dma @ 1965.50
I don't see a major catalyst that would cause us to break here, so I'm a buyer @ 2025 and until we test the upper band of the range @ 2060-2070.
But if we break 2024.75 with authority, I reserve the right to call an audible because the 50 dma @ 1967 comes into play.
Tuesday, November 11, 2014
Discipline dictates covering shorts here. Twitter has filled the gap from 7/29/2014 perfectly.
With an analyst day tomorrow, the animal spirits may be awakened and drive the stock higher in the near term. No sense taking that potential pain in a squeeze that the promotion may cause.
Wednesday, November 5, 2014
Pain Trade to 2060 is in the realm of possibilities.
I'll leave the fundamental explanation to the CFA's and story tellers, but there are still plenty of non-believers and bears that haven't capitulated and could lead us higher as we plow through this untouched snow.
Don't forget that the market is controlled by the 2/20 crowd and there is plenty of money to be made on the 20% of profits into year end.