Tuesday, December 15, 2015
Futures have bounced 50 handles off yesterday's lows and have rallied into a big level right here...2032.
This is probably a decent place to sell some longs and wait for a little bit of a pullback. You can always reload, however, if we do hold this 2032 level.
I'm waiting for the "January Effect" to start kicking in, so keep an eye out on small caps (IWM) for relative strength.
2012 is still big underneath and would provide a better entry point, but there's no need to get too cute.
If we can hold 2032, then the 9 dma @ 2046.78 and the 150 dma @ 2047.13 come into play quickly as greed will trump fear.
Remember, its year end and bonuses are on the line.
Friday, December 11, 2015
Futures are below most support levels and are currently trading around the 100 dma @ 2023.94.
Below the 100 dma, there is some noise on the charts around 2012.
2 causes for weakness this morning:
1. Crude oil continues to get rocked due to oversupply issues and is hitting a multi year low as we speak.
2. The reality of the Fed meeting next week. Often a leading indicator of equities, the junk bond market (JNK) is hitting multi year lows.
$34.09 is the low from 2010:
Playing for the bounce at support levels after sharp sell off's has been working recently, as we caught a nice trade Wednesday and sold at the top.
I would prefer an entry point of 2012-2014, but JNK and /cl (crude oil) are my tells this morning.
If JNK can hold that $34.09 level and crude stops bleeding, futures could snap back to 2032.
Through 2032 with some confidence and volume gets us to the 150 dma @ 2048.57.
Wednesday, December 9, 2015
Futures retesting support here this morning @ the 50 dma (red line above). The 150 dma (light blue line) sits right below @ 2049.40.
This is the spot to buy them for a trade if you missed yesterday's test.
Again, this is not a marriage...catch and release.
2062 is the pivot and has been a battlefield.
If we break through 2062 with a little confidence and volume, look to make sales @ 2079.
The market has been trading with crude lately and oil is up this morning.
Just to keep everyone honest, crude could rally and test its 9 dma @ $40.01, which should give a bid to the overall market and get some shorts to cover that have overstayed their welcome:
Tuesday, December 8, 2015
200 dma = 2058.17; 150 dma = 2049.74; 50 dma = 2047.55. In other words, lots of support here.
Crude seems to have stabilized and it looks like it wants to go green, now that everyone is convinced it's going to $30. That could really help the market, especially since it's right above all these support levels.
Remember, shorts need to take profits, too.
Among the market ETF's, QQQ still has the relative strength, but IWM has a lot of oil names in it.
If crude does go positive and we stay > /es 2062, IWM (TNA = 3x) could rip higher.
But we have to be nimble...everything is a trade here. I would use /es 2079 as a level to lighten up.