Wednesday, October 29, 2014
We're above all the moving averages and I can't recall being this far away from the 9 dma (1941.50) in quite some time.
Most bears probably covered after we closed above the 50 dma @ 1962.
I'm sure there are still a lot of shorts that are disappointed the world didn't end last week and that's why we always overshoot in the short term.
But if you're a trader and got long in the 1800's, I'd use this 1985 - 1990 level as a place to lighten up.
I'd even lay out some shorts @ 1985 (right shoulder) and take advantage of the greedy bulls that are calling for 2000.
The 50 dma @ 1962 and the 9 dma @ 1941 beckon.
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
Perfect bounces off those trend lines as SkyNet is firmly in control.
We closed right on the 200 dma @ 1901 last night before AAPL's earnings announcement...amazing how often technical and fundamental worlds collide.
Next stop looks like the 150 dma @ 1926.80, which coincides with a major trendline (support has become resistance).
Thursday, October 16, 2014
We're right on it this morning after testing and bouncing yesterday to close unched for the year.
Managing risk, I went back to the 2009 lows and connected the dots.
The new trend line coincides perfectly with the October, 2007 peak.
Not a prediction, and this move could take some time, but if the selling intensifies, I'd rather be prepared.
Also, bear markets are defined by a 20% move off the highs.
2000 * .8 = 1600...which is right on the new trend line.
Wednesday, October 15, 2014
1846.25 is where we closed on 12/31/2013 and is a decent level of support on the chart. Probably makes sense to cover shorts in here but wait to get long.
Sentiment has deteriorated enough for us to get a bounce back to the 200 dma @ 1900.
Saturday, October 11, 2014
Recently, everyone has been breaking out their crayons to make trendlines.
But every trendline I've seen ignores, as an anomaly, the October 2011 and November 2012 moves.
The chart above shows a trend line drawn that includes those points....since we just broke below the 200 dma @ 1900 and things could get ugly.
Friday, October 10, 2014
Wednesday, October 8, 2014
I pointed out the 150 dma @ 1925 yesterday and we closed right on it. Everyone's a technician when the market sells off and traders turn into market psychologists.
The easiest way to judge sentiment is to reference the charts. Like a pilot flying blind in a storm, he relies on his instruments to guide him.
During times of volatile, trendless tapes, the algos and the programs tend to play ping pong with the market in between these levels (9, 50, 100, 150, and 200 dma).
Earnings season starts tonight and will give us a clearer picture.
Tuesday, October 7, 2014
We failed this morning @ 1956, which happens to be both the 9 dma and the 100 dma.
Unless we can get above that 1956 level with a little volume and confidence, it looks like lower levels are in store.
1924.95 is the 150 dma and is sitting right on the long term trend line.
The 200 dma @ 1898 is begging for attention as well.
Friday, October 3, 2014
Perfect bounce off the trend line yesterday. Now what?
A rally then roll over would hurt the most people, so that's what I'm leaning towards because the market is a nasty beast.
100 dma = 1954
9 dma = 1961
50 dma = 1969
These are all good levels to lighten up or even lay out shorts, in my opinion.
The 200 dma = 1897 and lurks below with a big bullseye on its head.